Source: www.newsweek.com - Friday, April 03, 2015
The P5+1 and Iran have announced a framework for negotiating a final agreement to limit the Iranian nuclear program by the end of June. Here are five quick thoughts on the nuclear and sanctions elements. 1. The nuclear limits particularly those on the Iranian supply chain—are surprisingly strong and significant. The rough scale of Iranian enrichment activities and low-enriched uranium stockpiling that the United States could tolerate has long been pretty clear. (I laid out the basic logic for the sorts of limits that would allow the United States to respond effectively to Iranian breakout in a technical paper a few years ago, and many others have made similar arguments.) The announced framework tracks those understandings. What I’m struck by, though, is the extent of the monitoring provisions, particularly as they apply to the Iranian supply chain. U.S. policymakers have long feared that so long as Iran could conduct some legal nuclear commerce, it would be easier to hide illegal activities, making a secret parallel nuclear program more feasible. The framework includes some pretty strong steps to address this, including a “dedicated procurement channel” for the nuclear program. These may seem like footnotes compared to the rule for centrifuges and uranium stocks, but they’re central. 2. The time it takes Iran to comply with the agreement will depend on its final details. Take one example: Iran is required “to reduce its current s
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The P5+1 and Iran have announced a framework for negotiating a final agreement to limit the Iranian nuclear program by the end of June. Here are five quick thoughts on the nuclear and sanctions elements. 1. The nuclear limits particularly those on the Iranian supply chain—are surprisingly strong and significant. The rough scale of Iranian enrichment activities and low-enriched uranium stockpiling that the United States could tolerate has long been pretty clear. (I laid out the basic logic for the sorts of limits that would allow the United States to respond effectively to Iranian breakout in a technical paper a few years ago, and many others have made similar arguments.) The announced framework tracks those understandings. What I’m struck by, though, is the extent of the monitoring provisions, particularly as they apply to the Iranian supply chain. U.S. policymakers have long feared that so long as Iran could conduct some legal nuclear commerce, it would be easier to hide illegal activities, making a secret parallel nuclear program more feasible. The framework includes some pretty strong steps to address this, including a “dedicated procurement channel” for the nuclear program. These may seem like footnotes compared to the rule for centrifuges and uranium stocks, but they’re central. 2. The time it takes Iran to comply with the agreement will depend on its final details. Take one example: Iran is required “to reduce its current s
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