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vendredi 30 janvier 2015

Our Erratic Economy

Source: http://ift.tt/rwTcEw - Friday, January 30, 2015

If you’ve followed the recent quarter-by-quarter performance of the American economy, the adjective that comes to mind is “erratic.” Good quarter, weak quarter, very good quarter, crap quarter, etc. Today, we learned that growth in the fourth quarter of 2014 was nearly halved from the third-quarter growth rate, down to 2.6 percent. Reuters, rooting around for some good news, writes: “Even with the moderation in the fourth quarter, growth remained above the 2.5 percent pace, which is considered to be the economy’s potential.” If you are wondering what in hell “2.5 percent growth is considered to be the economy’s potential” means, you are not alone. The Reuters piece also reports that consumer spending remains robust and repeats the myth that consumer spending represents “more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.” It does not . Or rather, it does if you count as “consumer spending” a lot of things that are not consumer spending , e.g. Medicaid, Medicare, nonprofit enterprises, etc. Wishing that the news were good does not make it good. It isn’t good. It isn’t terrible. It’s erratic. And erratic . . . isn’t good.




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